Blog | Victory for Hillary 2008, 2012

Here’s another update to my discussion of “Math that Matters Most”. Basically, that post was a data and statistical analysis (i.e., reality-based) approach to deciding the Democratic Primary contest between Hillary and Barack by choosing the stronger general election candidate. Many of us in the Hillary camp are flabbergasted by the lemming march the Obama supporters and their MSM tank drivers seem to be advocating for. Why the deliberate choice to install John McCain into the White House?

The primary contest is now up to the superdelegates whose duty and responsibility is to choose the strongest candidate to defeat the Republican contender. It bears repeating that in this cycle:

Neither candidate has or will reach the magic number (2209) of pledged delegates
Neither candidate has an overwhelming lead in the popular vote (Hillary will end up with a bigger number here by the time Puerto Rico is counted).
We know who is going to be the opponent — John McCain
We have state-by-state, head-to-head matchup polling data for most of the states
The general election is decided by the Electoral College in a state-by-state, winner-takes-all delegates, with the magic number equal to 270.
The DNC rules state the superdelegates are free to make their minds up about who might be the stronger candidate based on any criteria they choose.

So, with neither candidate able to show enough strength to win 2209 pledge delegates, it’s up to the SDs and how should they decide?

Who has more pledged delegates?

Who has more popular vote?
Who makes the prettiest speeches?
Who gave them the most money from their slush fund?
Who has cooler graphics on their web site?
The color of their skin?
Their gender?
Who is most likely to maintain the Democratic majority in Congress?
Who can win the general election vs. John McCain?

Certainly it is not a majority of the pledged delegates, if that was the DNC rule, this contest would already be over. The rules deliberately set up the superdelegates to make a wise choice in case of a virutal tie like we have with Hillary and Barack.

The nice, democratic feeling popular vote total (will of the electorate and all that) is in no way part of the DNC rules. If it were, Barack would be in WV every day instead of blowing it off to hobnob with the SDs.

So, of course, there is only one criteria that should matter — who is going to win the General Election against John McCain (with the secondary consideration being who is more likely to maintain or increase the Democratic majority in Congress).

I keep finding lots of data showing how terrible Barack will do and how very, very strong Hillary is in the GE. For example, here are a couple electoral college charts from a Professor of Anthropology who does a lot of demographical analysis in his day job. He is performing weekly Monte Carlo analyses on the election (performs 10,000 election simulation for each matchup, etc …) and the data again shows Barack loses and Hillary wins.

The color codes indicated the probability the democrat wins:

If you browse the comments to my earlier post, Barack’s trolls seem completely offended and oh-so defensive when presented with the data. Perhaps this is because they don’t have any of their data to show. In fact, I’m still trying to find ONE data based analysis that shows Barack winning or doing better than Hillary in the general election matchup against John McCain. Here’s your chance Obamabots! C’mon, show me the data… Not too friggin’ likely. Instead I’m sure I’ll be hearing more of the hopium, changeyium B.S. Or a desperate, pathetic pledged delegate argument that makes zero sense for the General Election.

Thank our lucky stars the SDs can change their minds as many times as they like between now and Denver. By then, surely, they will have figured out what is in the best interests of the Democratic party. Go Hillary!!!